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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 7 at the 36

Carolina Panthers 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10

What Actually Happened

(6:42) (Field Goal formation) 9-G.Gano 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO -0.03 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.90 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 36, worth -2.03 EP
KICK -0.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model