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Carolina Panthers

HC Ron Rivera
@
TB Home

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Dirk Koetter
Sunday 2017-01-01 · 13:00 Raymond James Stadium, Tampa US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.5 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

CAR
29.4%
TB
70.6%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CAR offense: -0.092 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • QB edge to TB: Jameis Winston (TB) +0.168 vs Cam Newton (CAR) -0.071 EPA/dropback
  • TB offense: +0.039 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • TB defense: -0.039 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (9th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CAR 20
–
TB 26
Projected margin: TB by 6 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

CAR

Derek Anderson QB Out Illness
Charles Johnson DE Out Foot
Cam Newton QB Questionable right Shoulder
Greg Olsen TE Questionable Elbow
Jonathan Stewart RB Questionable Foot

TB

William Gholston DE Out Elbow
Gosder Cherilus T Questionable Groin
Vernon Hargreaves CB Questionable Abdomen

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CAR 16
–
TB 17

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:05 FG TB (11:05) (Field Goal formation) 19-R.Aguayo 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-9-B.Anger. CAR 0 – TB 3
  • Q1 08:26 TD CAR (8:26) (No Huddle) 28-J.Stewart right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 6 – TB 3
  • Q3 14:27 TD TB (14:27) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short right intended for 19-T.Ginn INTERCEPTED by 24-B.Grimes at CAR 31. 24-B.Grimes for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 7 – TB 9
  • Q3 06:42 FG CAR (6:42) (Field Goal formation) 9-G.Gano 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy. CAR 10 – TB 10
  • Q4 03:21 TD TB (3:21) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short left to 13-M.Evans for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CAR-23-L.Johnson, Defensive Holding, declined. CAR 10 – TB 16
  • Q4 00:22 TD CAR (:22) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short left to 13-K.Benjamin for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 16 – TB 17

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TB 4th & 7 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 94%

    (11:05) (Field Goal formation) 19-R.Aguayo 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-9-B.Anger.

  • Q1 TB 4th & 10 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 42%

    (6:46) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 35 yards to CAR 8, Center-48-A.DePaola, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 3 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (3:12) (Punt formation) 5-M.Palardy punts 47 yards to TB 26, Center-44-J.Jansen. 11-A.Humphries to TB 46 for 20 yards (30-T.Dixon). PENALTY on TB-26-J.Robinson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at TB 33.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 16 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (11:52) (Punt formation) 5-M.Palardy punts 44 yards to TB 34, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 11-A.Humphries.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 14 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (10:54) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 52 yards to CAR 18, Center-48-A.DePaola. 19-T.Ginn to CAR 18 for no gain (23-C.Conte).

  • Q2 TB 4th & 5 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 80%

    (:46) (Field Goal formation) 19-R.Aguayo 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-9-B.Anger.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 1 at the 40
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 50%

    (:02) (Field Goal formation) 9-G.Gano 58 yard field goal is No Good, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy. 11-A.Humphries at TB -9 to CAR 33 for 76 yards (84-E.Dickson).

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 8 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 42%

    (12:24) 5-M.Palardy punts 31 yards to TB 12, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-43-F.Whittaker.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 10 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (9:54) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 53 yards to CAR 14, Center-48-A.DePaola, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 7 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 61%

    (6:42) (Field Goal formation) 9-G.Gano 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 6 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (4:44) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 46 yards to CAR 14, Center-48-A.DePaola, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 16 at the 92
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (3:15) (Punt formation) 5-M.Palardy punts 42 yards to 50, Center-44-J.Jansen. 11-A.Humphries to 50 for no gain (52-J.Norris).

  • Q3 TB 4th & 13 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 20%

    (2:00) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 43 yards to CAR 10, Center-48-A.DePaola, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 16 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 74%

    (12:04) (Field Goal formation) 19-R.Aguayo 48 yard field goal is BLOCKED (99-K.Short), Center-53-A.Glanton, Holder-9-B.Anger, RECOVERED by CAR-54-S.Thompson at CAR 28. 54-S.Thompson pushed ob at CAR 49 for 21 yards (9-B.Anger).

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 14 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 91%

    (6:10) (Field Goal formation) 9-G.Gano 36 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 2 at the 19 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 90%

    (2:00) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short middle to 88-G.Olsen to TB 16 for 3 yards (30-B.McDougald).

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 12 at the 18 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.63 EP
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 91%

    (:46) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short middle to 13-K.Benjamin to TB 5 for 13 yards (54-L.David).