Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 6 at the 60

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10 – Carolina Panthers 10

(4:44) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 46 yards to CAR 14, Center-48-A.DePaola, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.

The Three Options

GO -0.61 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.78 EP
58% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 60, worth -3.02 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model