Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 16 at the 92

Carolina Panthers 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10

(3:15) (Punt formation) 5-M.Palardy punts 42 yards to 50, Center-44-J.Jansen. 11-A.Humphries to 50 for no gain (52-J.Norris).

The Three Options

GO -3.73 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.61 EP
72% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 92, worth -5.42 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (109 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model