4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 2 at the 19

Carolina Panthers 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short middle to 88-G.Olsen to TB 16 for 3 yards (30-B.McDougald).

The Three Options

GO +1.70 EP
What Happened
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +3.87 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 19, worth -0.68 EP
KICK +1.83 EP
Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 29, worth -1.01 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model