4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 12 at the 18

Carolina Panthers 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17

What Actually Happened

(:46) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short middle to 13-K.Benjamin to TB 5 for 13 yards (54-L.David).

The Three Options

GO +0.92 EP
What Happened
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +4.10 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 18, worth -0.11 EP
KICK +2.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.81 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 28, worth -0.21 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.63 EP