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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 3 at the 73

Carolina Panthers 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

What Actually Happened

(3:12) (Punt formation) 5-M.Palardy punts 47 yards to TB 26, Center-44-J.Jansen. 11-A.Humphries to TB 46 for 20 yards (30-T.Dixon). PENALTY on TB-26-J.Robinson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at TB 33.

The Three Options

GO -1.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.05 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 73, worth -4.45 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.72 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 31, worth -1.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model