Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 9 at the 72

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Cleveland Browns 14

(7:25) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 40 yards to CLE 32, Center-60-G.Warren, downed by PIT-83-C.Hamilton.

The Three Options

GO -1.58 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +2.15 EP
60% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 72, worth -4.05 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model