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Cleveland Browns

HC Hue Jackson
@
PIT Home

Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
Sunday 2017-01-01 · 13:00 Heinz Field, Pittsburgh US 🌧 Rain Spread 3.5 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

CLE
20.8%
PIT
79.2%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CLE offense: -0.134 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • PIT offense: +0.119 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • Robert Griffin (CLE): -0.198 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • CLE defense: +0.152 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • PIT defense: -0.060 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CLE 17
–
PIT 28
Projected margin: PIT by 11 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

CLE

Trey Caldwell CB Out Hamstring
Cam Johnson LB Questionable Groin
Joe Haden CB Questionable Neck
Duke Johnson RB Questionable Ankle

PIT

Robert Golden S Out Ankle
Ladarius Green TE Out Concussion
Stephon Tuitt DE Out Knee
Anthony Chickillo LB Questionable Ankle
Xavier Grimble TE Questionable Ribs

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CLE 24
–
PIT 27

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:57 TD CLE (7:57) 10-R.Griffin pass short right to 87-S.DeValve for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 6 – PIT 0
  • Q2 09:25 TD CLE (9:25) (Shotgun) 10-R.Griffin pass short right to 82-G.Barnidge for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 13 – PIT 0
  • Q2 00:39 TD PIT (:39) (Shotgun) 3-L.Jones pass short right to 34-D.Williams for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 14 – PIT 6
  • Q4 13:25 TD PIT (13:25) 74-C.Hubbard reported in as eligible. 34-D.Williams left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 14 – PIT 13
  • Q4 05:21 TD PIT (5:21) (Shotgun) 3-L.Jones pass short right to 15-D.Ayers for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 14 – PIT 20
  • Q4 03:33 TD CLE (3:33) (Shotgun) 25-G.Atkinson III up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 20 – PIT 21
  • Q5 07:21 FG CLE (7:21) (Field Goal formation) 3-C.Parkey 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. CLE 24 – PIT 21
  • Q5 03:04 TD PIT (3:04) (Shotgun) 3-L.Jones pass deep left to 83-C.Hamilton for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 24 – PIT 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (14:11) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 51 yards to PIT 20, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 17-E.Rogers to PIT 25 for 5 yards (24-I.Campbell, 53-J.Schobert).

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 20 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (12:14) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 40 yards to CLE 45, Center-60-G.Warren, fair catch by 15-M.Alford.

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 17 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (5:48) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 43 yards to CLE 30, Center-60-G.Warren. 15-M.Alford pushed ob at CLE 42 for 12 yards (88-D.Heyward-Bey, 37-J.Dangerfield). PENALTY on CLE-41-T.Howard, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CLE 30.

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 15 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (2:19) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 48 yards to PIT 14, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 17-E.Rogers to PIT 14 for no gain. FUMBLES, ball out of bounds at PIT 14. PENALTY on PIT-45-R.Nix, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at PIT 14.

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 2 at the 85
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP
    p(convert) 66%

    (:14) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 51 yards to CLE 34, Center-60-G.Warren. 15-M.Alford to CLE 43 for 9 yards (45-R.Nix). PENALTY on CLE-20-B.Boddy-Calhoun, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CLE 43.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 9 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (7:25) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 40 yards to CLE 32, Center-60-G.Warren, downed by PIT-83-C.Hamilton.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 10 at the 99
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (2:14) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 46 yards to PIT 47, Center-60-G.Warren, out of bounds.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 1 at the 28
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 80%

    (1:13) (No Huddle) 34-D.Williams up the middle to CLE 25 for 3 yards (51-J.Collins).

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 13 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (12:14) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 41 yards to CLE 18, Center-60-G.Warren, downed by PIT-88-D.Heyward-Bey.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 9 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (10:05) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 42 yards to PIT 39, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 17-E.Rogers.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 7 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (8:05) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 43 yards to CLE 15, Center-60-G.Warren, fair catch by 15-M.Alford.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 9 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (5:54) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 49 yards to PIT 24, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 17-E.Rogers to PIT 34 for 10 yards (40-D.Vitale, 58-C.Kirksey). PENALTY on PIT-44-T.Matakevich, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 34.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 13 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 75%

    (7:39) (Field Goal formation) 3-C.Parkey 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. CLE-74-C.Erving was injured during the play.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 18 at the 97 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (1:43) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 64 yards to CLE 33, Center-60-G.Warren. 15-M.Alford to 50 for 17 yards (44-T.Matakevich).