Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 6 at the 71

Cleveland Browns 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(14:11) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 51 yards to PIT 20, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 17-E.Rogers to PIT 25 for 5 yards (24-I.Campbell, 53-J.Schobert).

The Three Options

GO -2.13 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.34 EP
60% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 71, worth -4.40 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model