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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 28

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Cleveland Browns 14

What Actually Happened

(1:13) (No Huddle) 34-D.Williams up the middle to CLE 25 for 3 yards (51-J.Collins).

The Three Options

GO +2.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +3.91 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 28, worth -0.79 EP
KICK +1.59 EP
  • 80% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.35 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 38, worth -1.50 EP
PUNT +0.08 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth +0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model