4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 13 at the 59

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Cleveland Browns 14

What Actually Happened

(12:14) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 41 yards to CLE 18, Center-60-G.Warren, downed by PIT-88-D.Heyward-Bey.

The Three Options

GO -1.10 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.10 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 59, worth -3.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 18, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model