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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 9 at the 81

Cleveland Browns 14 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(10:05) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 42 yards to PIT 39, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 17-E.Rogers.

The Three Options

GO -2.92 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +0.92 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 81, worth -4.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -2.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 38, worth -2.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model