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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 20 at the 85

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(12:14) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 40 yards to CLE 45, Center-60-G.Warren, fair catch by 15-M.Alford.

The Three Options

GO -2.79 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.20 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 85, worth -4.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -1.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 43, worth -1.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model