Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 9 at the 73

Cleveland Browns 14 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(5:54) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 49 yards to PIT 24, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 17-E.Rogers to PIT 34 for 10 yards (40-D.Vitale, 58-C.Kirksey). PENALTY on PIT-44-T.Matakevich, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 34.

The Three Options

GO -2.32 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.70 EP
67% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 73, worth -4.33 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model