Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 17 at the 73

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(5:48) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 43 yards to CLE 30, Center-60-G.Warren. 15-M.Alford pushed ob at CLE 42 for 12 yards (88-D.Heyward-Bey, 37-J.Dangerfield). PENALTY on CLE-41-T.Howard, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CLE 30.

The Three Options

GO -2.06 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.56 EP
70% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 73, worth -4.07 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model