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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 2 at the 85

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(:14) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 51 yards to CLE 34, Center-60-G.Warren. 15-M.Alford to CLE 43 for 9 yards (45-R.Nix). PENALTY on CLE-20-B.Boddy-Calhoun, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CLE 43.

The Three Options

GO -0.88 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +1.08 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 85, worth -4.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -1.57 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 43, worth -1.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP