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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 9 at the 34

Philadelphia Eagles 3 – Dallas Cowboys 10

What Actually Happened

(5:57) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete deep middle to 47-T.Burton.

The Three Options

GO +0.54 EP
What Happened
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.38 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 34, worth -1.20 EP
KICK +0.74 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 37% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 44, worth -1.88 EP
PUNT +0.13 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model