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Dallas Cowboys

HC Jason Garrett
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PHI Home

Philadelphia Eagles

HC Doug Pederson
Sunday 2017-01-01 · 13:00 Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia US ☀️ Clear Spread 6.5 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

DAL
56.5%
PHI
43.5%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DAL offense: +0.141 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • PHI defense: +0.069 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • PHI offense: -0.048 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • PHI on 4 more days rest than DAL
  • QB edge to PHI: Carson Wentz (PHI) -0.043 vs Mark Sanchez (DAL) -0.127 EPA/dropback (DAL starting Mark Sanchez in place of Dak Prescott)

Predicted Final Score

DAL 23
–
PHI 20
Projected margin: DAL by 3 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

DAL

Morris Claiborne CB Out Groin
Tyrone Crawford DT Out Shoulder
Justin Durant LB Out Elbow
Demarcus Lawrence DE Out Back
Terrell McClain DT Out Ankle
Tyron Smith T Out Knee
Cedric Thornton DT Out Ankle
Anthony Brown CB Questionable Concussion
Ronald Leary G Questionable Back
Darren McFadden RB Questionable Illness
Randy Gregory DE Questionable Abdomen
Jack Crawford DE Questionable Foot
Sean Lee LB Questionable Knee

PHI

Allen Barbre G Doubtful Hamstring
Jordan Hicks LB Questionable Ankle
Isaac Seumalo G Questionable Ankle
Mychal Kendricks LB Questionable Quadricep
Jordan Matthews WR Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DAL 13
–
PHI 27

Prediction missed by 17 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 04:00 FG PHI (4:00) 6-C.Sturgis 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones. DAL 0 – PHI 3
  • Q2 14:55 FG DAL (14:55) 5-D.Bailey 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. DAL 3 – PHI 3
  • Q2 10:15 TD DAL (10:15) (Shotgun) 9-T.Romo pass short left to 83-T.Williams for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 9 – PHI 3
  • Q2 00:10 TD PHI (:10) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short middle to 86-Z.Ertz for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 10 – PHI 9
  • Q3 09:20 FG DAL (9:20) 5-D.Bailey 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. DAL 13 – PHI 10
  • Q3 05:02 TD PHI (5:02) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass deep left to 86-Z.Ertz for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 13 – PHI 16
  • Q4 02:21 FG PHI (2:21) 6-C.Sturgis 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones. DAL 13 – PHI 20
  • Q4 01:26 TD PHI (1:26) 35-T.Watson up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 13 – PHI 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 14 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (12:25) 6-C.Jones punts 48 yards to PHI 18, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, downed by DAL-23-L.McFadden.

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 98%

    (4:00) 6-C.Sturgis 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 5 at the 31
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 70%

    (14:55) 5-D.Bailey 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 9 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (13:11) 8-D.Jones punts 52 yards to DAL 11, Center-45-R.Lovato. 13-L.Whitehead to DAL 19 for 8 yards (54-K.Grugier-Hill).

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (8:12) 8-D.Jones punts 48 yards to DAL 26, Center-45-R.Lovato. 13-L.Whitehead ran ob at DAL 38 for 12 yards (56-B.Braman).

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 9 at the 34
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 63%

    (5:57) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete deep middle to 47-T.Burton.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 12 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (4:20) 6-C.Jones punts 66 yards to PHI 1, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, out of bounds.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 10 at the 99
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (2:16) 8-D.Jones punts 53 yards to DAL 46, Center-45-R.Lovato. 13-L.Whitehead to DAL 49 for 3 yards (29-T.Brooks).

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 9 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (12:48) 8-D.Jones punts 47 yards to DAL 29, Center-45-R.Lovato, out of bounds.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 2 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.77 EP
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 98%

    (9:20) 5-D.Bailey 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 11 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (1:01) 6-C.Jones punts 38 yards to PHI 22, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 43-D.Sproles.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 7 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 70%

    (12:21) 6-C.Sturgis 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 2 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.41 EP
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 18%

    (10:16) 6-C.Jones punts 43 yards to PHI 10, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, out of bounds.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 4 at the 15 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 93%

    (2:21) 6-C.Sturgis 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones.