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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 10 at the 99

Philadelphia Eagles 3 – Dallas Cowboys 10

What Actually Happened

(2:16) 8-D.Jones punts 53 yards to DAL 46, Center-45-R.Lovato. 13-L.Whitehead to DAL 49 for 3 yards (29-T.Brooks).

The Three Options

GO -3.83 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 89, worth +0.55 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 99, worth -6.42 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (116 yards).

PUNT -2.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 53, worth -2.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model