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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 4 at the 15

Philadelphia Eagles 17 – Dallas Cowboys 13

What Actually Happened

(2:21) 6-C.Sturgis 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +1.60 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.47 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 15, worth -0.43 EP
KICK +1.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25, worth -0.92 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model