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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 3 at the 3

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(4:00) 6-C.Sturgis 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +3.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.24 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 3, worth +0.48 EP
KICK +2.25 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21, worth -0.49 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EP