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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 5 at the 31

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 3

What Actually Happened

(14:55) 5-D.Bailey 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.86 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.12 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 31, worth -1.67 EP
KICK +0.54 EP
What Happened
  • 70% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 41, worth -2.32 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP