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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 9 at the 63

Philadelphia Eagles 3 – Dallas Cowboys 3

What Actually Happened

(13:11) 8-D.Jones punts 52 yards to DAL 11, Center-45-R.Lovato. 13-L.Whitehead to DAL 19 for 8 yards (54-K.Grugier-Hill).

The Three Options

GO -1.25 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.84 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 63, worth -3.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 21, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model