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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 18 at the 30

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 10

What Actually Happened

(6:39) 4-A.Vinatieri 48 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.

The Three Options

GO +0.06 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.11 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30, worth -1.36 EP
KICK +1.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 40, worth -1.92 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model