4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
JAX Away

Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Doug Marrone
@
IND Home

Indianapolis Colts

HC Chuck Pagano
Sunday 2017-01-01 · 13:00 Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread 5.5 O/U 48.5

Win Probability

JAX
33.3%
IND
66.7%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • JAX offense: -0.127 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • QB edge to IND: Andrew Luck (IND) +0.122 vs Blake Bortles (JAX) -0.070 EPA/dropback
  • IND offense: +0.040 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • JAX defense: -0.090 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

JAX 19
–
IND 24
Projected margin: IND by 5 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

JAX

Jordan Hill DT Out Calf
Allen Hurns WR Questionable Hamstring
Neal Sterling WR Questionable Concussion
Chris Ivory RB Questionable Hamstring
Marqise Lee WR Questionable Hip

IND

Darius Butler CB Out Concussion
Donte Moncrief WR Doubtful Shoulder
Chris Carter LB Questionable Shoulder
Rashaan Melvin CB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

JAX 20
–
IND 24

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:11 FG JAX (10:11) 2-J.Myers 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman. JAX 3 – IND 0
  • Q1 06:03 TD JAX (6:03) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short middle to 83-B.Koyack for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 9 – IND 0
  • Q2 05:57 TD JAX (5:57) 30-C.Grant up the middle for 57 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 16 – IND 0
  • Q2 02:46 FG IND (2:46) 4-A.Vinatieri 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee. JAX 17 – IND 3
  • Q3 10:22 TD IND (10:22) (Run formation) 33-R.Turbin left tackle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 17 – IND 9
  • Q3 00:19 TD IND (:19) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short right to 83-D.Allen for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 17 – IND 16
  • Q4 01:38 FG JAX (1:38) 2-J.Myers 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman. JAX 20 – IND 17
  • Q4 00:14 TD IND (:14) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short right to 84-J.Doyle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 20 – IND 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 IND 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (13:45) 1-P.McAfee punts 51 yards to JAX 16, Center-45-M.Overton. 81-B.Walters to JAX 14 for -2 yards (40-C.Milton).

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 9 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 79%

    (10:11) 2-J.Myers 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

  • Q1 IND 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (9:14) 1-P.McAfee punts 45 yards to JAX 25, Center-45-M.Overton, out of bounds.

  • Q1 IND 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (4:37) 1-P.McAfee punts 57 yards to JAX 16, Center-45-M.Overton. 81-B.Walters to JAX 21 for 5 yards (43-C.Carter; 45-M.Overton). PENALTY on JAX-55-D.Skuta, Defensive Holding, 8 yards, enforced at JAX 16.

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 1 at the 68
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.99 EP
    p(convert) 69%

    (2:13) 3-B.Nortman punts 52 yards to IND 16, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

  • Q1 IND 4th & 3 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55%

    (:41) 1-P.McAfee punts 50 yards to JAX 27, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 81-B.Walters.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 9 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 30%

    (12:12) 3-B.Nortman punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Tinker, Touchback.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 18 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 77%

    (6:39) 4-A.Vinatieri 48 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 3 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 82%

    (2:46) 4-A.Vinatieri 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 7 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 96%

    (:24) 2-J.Myers 30 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 2 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.09 EP
    p(convert) 57%

    (13:00) 3-B.Nortman punts 38 yards to IND 17, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 6 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (7:04) 3-B.Nortman punts 48 yards to IND 11, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 1 at the 33
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 71%

    (2:38) (Run formation) 33-R.Turbin up the middle to JAX 30 for 3 yards (31-D.House; 37-J.Cyprien).

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 6 at the 36 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 65%

    (3:30) 2-J.Myers 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 3 at the 23 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 87%

    (1:38) 2-J.Myers 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman.