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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 3 at the 27

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 17

What Actually Happened

(2:46) 4-A.Vinatieri 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.

The Three Options

GO +1.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.33 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 27, worth -1.01 EP
KICK +1.39 EP
What Happened
  • 82% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 37, worth -1.64 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model