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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 33

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Jacksonville Jaguars 17

What Actually Happened

(2:38) (Run formation) 33-R.Turbin up the middle to JAX 30 for 3 yards (31-D.House; 37-J.Cyprien).

The Three Options

GO +2.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.89 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 33, worth -1.39 EP
KICK +0.94 EP
  • 71% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 43, worth -2.09 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model