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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 9 at the 29

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(10:11) 2-J.Myers 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

The Three Options

GO +0.11 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.45 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 29, worth -1.68 EP
KICK +0.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 39, worth -2.43 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model