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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 6 at the 36

Jacksonville Jaguars 17 – Indianapolis Colts 17

What Actually Happened

(3:30) 2-J.Myers 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

The Three Options

GO +0.42 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.50 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 36, worth -1.31 EP
KICK +0.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 46, worth -1.84 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model