4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 3 at the 23

Jacksonville Jaguars 17 – Indianapolis Colts 17

What Actually Happened

(1:38) 2-J.Myers 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

The Three Options

GO +0.13 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +1.66 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 23, worth -1.17 EP
KICK +1.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 33, worth -1.57 EP
PUNT -0.76 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model