Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 8 at the 73

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 10

What Actually Happened

(4:37) 1-P.McAfee punts 57 yards to JAX 16, Center-45-M.Overton. 81-B.Walters to JAX 21 for 5 yards (43-C.Carter; 45-M.Overton). PENALTY on JAX-55-D.Skuta, Defensive Holding, 8 yards, enforced at JAX 16.

The Three Options

GO -1.81 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.97 EP
62% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 73, worth -4.10 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model