4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 68

Jacksonville Jaguars 10 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(2:13) 3-B.Nortman punts 52 yards to IND 16, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

The Three Options

GO -0.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.24 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 68, worth -4.02 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.37 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 26, worth -1.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.99 EP