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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 3 at the 17

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(10:20) 2-J.Lambo 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-10-K.Clemens.

The Three Options

GO +2.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.30 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 17, worth -0.26 EP
KICK +2.19 EP
What Happened
  • 92% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 27, worth -0.63 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model