Win Probability
Confidence: coin flip Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.
Key Insights
- KC defense: -0.033 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
- LAC offense: -0.036 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
- KC offense: -0.025 EPA/play over its last 8 games (18th in the league)
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Predicted Final Score
The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.
Injury Report — Week 17
SD
Pulled fresh for 2016 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 19 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 10:20 FG LAC (10:20) 2-J.Lambo 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-10-K.Clemens. KC 0 – SD 3
- Q1 05:23 FG KC (5:23) 5-C.Santos 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. KC 3 – SD 3
- Q2 14:55 TD LAC (14:55) 17-P.Rivers pass short left to 85-A.Gates for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 3 – SD 9
- Q2 12:58 TD KC (12:58) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith left end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 9 – SD 10
- Q2 06:14 TD KC (6:14) 11-A.Smith pass short right to 35-C.West for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 16 – SD 10
- Q2 00:05 FG KC (:05) 5-C.Santos 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. KC 20 – SD 10
- Q3 10:43 TD LAC (10:43) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short right intended for 34-K.Davis INTERCEPTED by 37-J.Addae (54-M.Ingram) at LAC 10. 37-J.Addae for 90 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 20 – SD 16
- Q3 03:53 TD KC (3:53) 11-A.Smith pass short right to 35-C.West for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 26 – SD 17
- Q3 01:20 TD KC (1:20) 8-D.Kaser punts 49 yards to KC 5, Center-47-M.Windt. 10-T.Hill for 95 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 33 – SD 17
- Q4 10:22 FG LAC (10:22) 2-J.Lambo 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-10-K.Clemens. KC 34 – SD 20
- Q4 04:35 FG KC (4:35) 5-C.Santos 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. KC 37 – SD 20
- Q4 02:13 TD LAC (2:13) 17-P.Rivers pass short right to 86-H.Henry for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 37 – SD 26
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 LAC 4th & 3 at the 17Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46% p(FG) 92%
(10:20) 2-J.Lambo 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-10-K.Clemens.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 KC 4th & 16 at the 16Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 22% p(FG) 92%
(5:23) 5-C.Santos 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 LAC 4th & 1 at the 22Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 65% p(FG) 86%
(:50) 44-A.Williams up the middle to KC 17 for 5 yards (53-R.Wilson).
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 LAC 4th & 7 at the 54Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(1:20) 8-D.Kaser punts 49 yards to KC 5, Center-47-M.Windt. 10-T.Hill for 95 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 LAC 4th & 11 at the 11Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 96%
(10:22) 2-J.Lambo 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-10-K.Clemens.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 KC 4th & 7 at the 19 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 90%
(4:35) 5-C.Santos 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 LAC 4th & 6 at the 68 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(3:10) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep right to 15-D.Inman to KC 49 for 19 yards (23-P.Gaines) [91-T.Hali]. LAC-72-J.Barksdale was injured during the play.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 KC 4th & 12 at the 48 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 27%
(1:00) 2-D.Colquitt punts 44 yards to LAC 4, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-12-A.Wilson.
See the full breakdown →
