Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 7 at the 54

Los Angeles Chargers 17 – Kansas City Chiefs 27

(1:20) 8-D.Kaser punts 49 yards to KC 5, Center-47-M.Windt. 10-T.Hill for 95 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO -0.82 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.80 EP
63% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 54, worth -2.94 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model