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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 11 at the 11

Los Angeles Chargers 17 – Kansas City Chiefs 34

What Actually Happened

(10:22) 2-J.Lambo 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-10-K.Clemens.

The Three Options

GO +1.11 EP
  • 26% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.68 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP
KICK +1.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 22, worth -1.12 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model