4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 7 at the 19

Kansas City Chiefs 34 – Los Angeles Chargers 20

What Actually Happened

(4:35) 5-C.Santos 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.49 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.86 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 19, worth -0.16 EP
KICK +2.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.38 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 29, worth -0.94 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model