Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 6 at the 68

Los Angeles Chargers 20 – Kansas City Chiefs 37

What Actually Happened

(3:10) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep right to 15-D.Inman to KC 49 for 19 yards (23-P.Gaines) [91-T.Hali]. LAC-72-J.Barksdale was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -1.20 EP

What Happened

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.53 EP
59% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 68, worth -3.10 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model