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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 12 at the 48

Kansas City Chiefs 37 – Los Angeles Chargers 27

What Actually Happened

(1:00) 2-D.Colquitt punts 44 yards to LAC 4, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-12-A.Wilson.

The Three Options

GO -0.70 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +1.00 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 48, worth -1.38 EP
KICK -0.37 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.40 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -1.38 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model