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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 4 at the 54

Miami Dolphins 0 – New England Patriots 17

What Actually Happened

(11:48) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 34 yards to NE 20, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 11-J.Edelman. PENALTY on NE-22-J.Coleman, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NE 20.

The Three Options

GO -0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.99 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 54, worth -2.55 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.24 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 16, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model