4TH&DATA
EN ES
Home
NE Away

New England Patriots

14-2 HC Bill Belichick
@
MIA Home

Miami Dolphins

10-6 HC Adam Gase
Sunday 2017-01-01 · 13:00 ET Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens US 💨 Windy Spread -7.5 O/U 47.0

Win Probability

NE
56.5%
MIA
43.5%
💨 Windy

Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • NE offense: +0.125 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • QB edge to MIA: Matt Moore (MIA) +0.463 vs Tom Brady (NE) +0.253 EPA/dropback
  • NE defense: -0.120 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • Wind 15 mph

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

NE 23 16–30
–
MIA 22 15–29
Projected margin: NE by 1 Projected total: 45

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 17

NE

Danny Amendola WR Out Ankle
Cyrus Jones CB Out Knee
Malcolm Mitchell WR Doubtful Knee
Martellus Bennett TE Questionable Ankle
Tom Brady QB Questionable Thigh
Dont'a Hightower LB Questionable Knee
Matt Slater WR Questionable Foot

MIA

Ryan Tannehill QB Out Knee
Jelani Jenkins LB Doubtful Knee
Byron Maxwell CB Doubtful Ankle
Jay Ajayi RB Questionable Shoulder
Spencer Paysinger LB Questionable Knee
Mario Williams DE Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NE 35
–
MIA 14

Prediction missed by 20 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:35 TD NE (7:35) 71-C.Fleming reported in as eligible. 12-T.Brady pass short right to 88-M.Bennett for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 6 – MIA 0
  • Q1 03:56 TD NE (3:56) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 14-M.Floyd for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 13 – MIA 0
  • Q2 15:00 FG NE (15:00) (Field Goal formation) 3-S.Gostkowski 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 17 – MIA 0
  • Q2 03:25 FG NE (3:25) (Field Goal formation) 3-S.Gostkowski 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 20 – MIA 0
  • Q2 00:36 TD MIA (:36) (Shotgun) 8-M.Moore pass short middle to 14-J.Landry for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on MIA-14-J.Landry, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. NE 20 – MIA 6
  • Q3 08:46 TD MIA (8:46) (Shotgun) 8-M.Moore pass deep middle to 10-K.Stills for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 20 – MIA 13
  • Q3 07:05 TD NE (7:05) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 11-J.Edelman for 77 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA-36-T.Lippett was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. NE 26 – MIA 14
  • Q4 05:34 TD NE (5:34) 29-L.Blount right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NE 33 – MIA 14

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 13 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (5:51) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 33 yards to NE 45, Center-92-J.Denney, out of bounds. PENALTY on MIA-46-N.Hewitt, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NE 45.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NE 4th & 8 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 85%

    (15:00) (Field Goal formation) 3-S.Gostkowski 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 MIA 4th & 4 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (11:48) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 34 yards to NE 20, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 11-J.Edelman. PENALTY on NE-22-J.Coleman, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NE 20.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NE 4th & 8 at the 8
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 97%

    (3:25) (Field Goal formation) 3-S.Gostkowski 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 MIA 4th & 4 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (4:44) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 53 yards to NE 19, Center-92-J.Denney. 11-J.Edelman to NE 30 for 11 yards (45-M.Hull). MIA-45-M.Hull was injured during the play. His return is Probable. PENALTY on NE-92-G.Grissom, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NE 19.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NE 4th & 2 at the 83
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP
    p(convert) 64%

    (3:16) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 42 yards to MIA 41, Center-49-J.Cardona. 19-J.Grant to MIA 41 for no gain (31-J.Jones). FUMBLES (31-J.Jones), and recovers at MIA 41. 19-J.Grant to MIA 41 for no gain (18-M.Slater).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 MIA 4th & 5 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (1:40) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 38 yards to NE 16, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 11-J.Edelman.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NE 4th & 19 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (14:00) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 48 yards to MIA 32, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 MIA 4th & 8 at the 54 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (3:54) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 48 yards to NE 6, Center-92-J.Denney, downed by MIA-40-L.Pitts.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NE 4th & 14 at the 98 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (2:43) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 56 yards to MIA 42, Center-49-J.Cardona. 19-J.Grant to NE 44 for 14 yards (43-N.Ebner).

    See the full breakdown →