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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 8 at the 8

New England Patriots 17 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(3:25) (Field Goal formation) 3-S.Gostkowski 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +1.36 EP
  • 32% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.62 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 8, worth -0.66 EP
KICK +1.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21, worth -1.02 EP
PUNT -0.69 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model