Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 4 at the 72

Miami Dolphins 14 – New England Patriots 27

What Actually Happened

(4:44) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 53 yards to NE 19, Center-92-J.Denney. 11-J.Edelman to NE 30 for 11 yards (45-M.Hull). MIA-45-M.Hull was injured during the play. His return is Probable. PENALTY on NE-92-G.Grissom, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NE 19.

The Three Options

GO -1.43 EP

48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.57 EP
52% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 72, worth -4.23 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model