4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 2 at the 83

New England Patriots 27 – Miami Dolphins 14

What Actually Happened

(3:16) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 42 yards to MIA 41, Center-49-J.Cardona. 19-J.Grant to MIA 41 for no gain (31-J.Jones). FUMBLES (31-J.Jones), and recovers at MIA 41. 19-J.Grant to MIA 41 for no gain (18-M.Slater).

The Three Options

GO -1.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.58 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 83, worth -4.99 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -2.17 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 41, worth -2.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP