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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 19 at the 80

New England Patriots 27 – Miami Dolphins 14

What Actually Happened

(14:00) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 48 yards to MIA 32, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.77 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.87 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 80, worth -4.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -2.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 37, worth -2.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model