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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 8 at the 22

New England Patriots 14 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(15:00) (Field Goal formation) 3-S.Gostkowski 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +0.82 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.86 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 22, worth -1.24 EP
KICK +1.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 32, worth -2.03 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model