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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 2 at the 41

Washington Commanders 0 – New York Giants 10

What Actually Happened

(6:37) 5-T.Way punts 32 yards to NYG 9, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 17-D.Harris.

The Three Options

GO +1.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.58 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 41, worth -1.95 EP
KICK -0.28 EP
  • 52% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 12, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.71 EP