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New York Giants

HC Ben McAdoo
@
WAS Home

Washington Commanders

HC Jay Gruden
Sunday 2017-01-01 · 16:25 FedExField, Landover US ☀️ Clear Spread 10.0 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

NYG
28.1%
WAS
71.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • WAS offense: +0.197 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • NYG offense: -0.097 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • QB edge to WAS: Kirk Cousins (WAS) +0.225 vs Eli Manning (NYG) -0.050 EPA/dropback
  • WAS defense: +0.094 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • NYG defense: -0.136 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NYG 21
–
WAS 27
Projected margin: WAS by 6 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

NYG

Jason Pierre-Paul DE Out Core Muscle
Nat Berhe S Out Concussion
Jerell Adams TE Questionable Shoulder
B.J. Goodson LB Questionable Concussion
Janoris Jenkins CB Questionable Back
Coty Sensabaugh CB Questionable Ankle

WAS

Su'a Cravens S Out Upper Arm
Vinston Painter T Out Calf
Quinton Dunbar CB Out Concussion
Ryan Kerrigan LB Questionable Elbow
Chris Baker DE Questionable Ankle
Will Compton LB Questionable Knee
Rob Kelley RB Questionable Knee
Spencer Long G Questionable Ankle
Trent Murphy LB Questionable Foot
Jordan Reed TE Questionable Shoulder
Martrell Spaight LB Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYG 19
–
WAS 10

Prediction missed by 15 pts on margin, 19 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 02:16 FG NYG (2:16) 5-R.Gould 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing. NYG 3 – WAS 0
  • Q2 09:24 TD NYG (9:24) 23-R.Jennings up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 9 – WAS 0
  • Q3 00:30 FG WAS (:30) 3-D.Hopkins 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. NYG 10 – WAS 3
  • Q4 08:17 TD WAS (8:17) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 86-J.Reed for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 10 – WAS 9
  • Q4 02:17 FG NYG (2:17) 5-R.Gould 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing. NYG 13 – WAS 10
  • Q4 00:06 TD NYG (:06) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 86-J.Reed to WAS 15 for 9 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by NYG-31-T.Wade at WAS 11. 31-T.Wade for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on WAS-61-S.Long, Ineligible Downfield Pass, declined. NYG 19 – WAS 10

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.21 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (12:57) 5-T.Way punts 55 yards to NYG 11, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 17-D.Harris to NYG 22 for 11 yards (22-D.Everett).

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 3 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (11:26) 9-B.Wing punts 48 yards to WAS 23, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 80-J.Crowder pushed ob at WAS 48 for 25 yards (43-B.Rainey). PENALTY on WAS-35-D.Phillips, Offensive Holding, 9 yards, enforced at WAS 23.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 7 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (9:04) 5-T.Way punts 45 yards to NYG 38, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 17-D.Harris to NYG 40 for 2 yards (35-D.Phillips; 89-D.Carrier).

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 98%

    (2:16) 5-R.Gould 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 2 at the 41
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.71 EP
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 52%

    (6:37) 5-T.Way punts 32 yards to NYG 9, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 17-D.Harris.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 12 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (2:53) 9-B.Wing punts 44 yards to WAS 19, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 28 for 9 yards (53-D.Skinner).

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 17 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (1:41) 5-T.Way punts 52 yards to NYG 27, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 17-D.Harris to NYG 32 for 5 yards (29-D.Ihenacho).

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 9 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (:49) 9-B.Wing punts 40 yards to WAS 16, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 27 for 11 yards (94-M.Herzlich; 59-D.Kennard).

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 2 at the 16
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 93%

    (9:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass incomplete short left to 13-O.Beckham (54-M.Foster).

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 20 at the 94
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (8:33) 5-T.Way punts 49 yards to NYG 45, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 17-D.Harris to WAS 49 for 6 yards (52-T.Garvin; 29-D.Ihenacho). NYG-17-D.Harris was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. 17-Harris has a knee injury

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 12 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 27%

    (6:19) 9-B.Wing punts 51 yards to end zone, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Touchback.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 4 at the 89
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 51%

    (2:48) 9-B.Wing punts 55 yards to WAS 34, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 80-J.Crowder to NYG 47 for 19 yards (51-Z.DeOssie).

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 8 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 94%

    (:30) 3-D.Hopkins 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.02 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (13:35) 9-B.Wing punts 42 yards to WAS 24, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 15 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (6:44) 9-B.Wing punts 49 yards to WAS 31, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, out of bounds.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 10 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (6:13) 5-T.Way punts 59 yards to NYG 10, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 17-D.Harris to NYG 20 for 10 yards (22-D.Everett).

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 7 at the 22 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 88%

    (2:17) 5-R.Gould 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 2 at the 39 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.46 EP
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 57%

    (:18) 9-B.Wing punts 34 yards to WAS 5, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 6 for 1 yard (51-Z.DeOssie).