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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 9 at the 56

New York Giants 10 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(:49) 9-B.Wing punts 40 yards to WAS 16, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 27 for 11 yards (94-M.Herzlich; 59-D.Kennard).

The Three Options

GO -0.82 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.22 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 56, worth -2.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 17, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model